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I’m not a local here so I would like to know why this electorate bucked the national trend.
@ Bob, I think the 2022 Federal election, was not a classic change election rather a series of by-elections. Scomo alienated 3 key demographics, Chinese Australian voters, WA voters and Small l liberal/Teal voters (including Higgins/Boothby and 3 Brisbane seats). All but one of the seats that changed hands can fall under one of these 3 catergories. The one exception being the seat of Robertson which does not fall under any of the 3 and is a classic bellweather. Tangney was a combination of all 3 key demographics. Other classic swing seats such as Lindsay, Herbert, Longman did not fall the national trend. One more thing, Tasmania was not as affected by the Bushfires and Covid so Scomo’s standing would have been better.
@Nimalan that is the best summation of why there was a change of Government at the 2022 election.
Braddon and Bass are like brothers – they’ve flipped in the same direction since 1998. They helped extend the lives of the Howard Government in 2004 and the Morrison Government in 2019 when they flipped from Labor to Liberal.
2022’s election was a weird one with many seats bucking the national 2PP swing. Braddon, Bass and Longman were marginal Liberal seats but they increased their margins. The Liberals almost flipped Lingiari, Gilmore and Lyons. There were big swings away from Labor in many of their heartland seats in metro Melbourne. 2007’s and 2013’s changes of Government had their share of seats bucking the trend (e.g. Swan in 2007, Greenway in 2013) but there were much fewer.
On the other hand, I would point out there’s many seats that had huge swings to Labor, many with double digit swings. I’d agree that 2022 was basically a series of mini-elections rather than a normal election with consistent swings with the general demographics and geography determining the swing and the direction.
@Votante on TPP Longman had a 0.20% swing against the LNP, but that’s still only a tiny swing against them. Tasmania itself actually had a statewide swing on both primaries and TPP to the Liberals and against Labor. In fact Labor’s primary vote in Tasmania was actually lower than their primary vote in Queensland (only just though). The statewide result in Tasmania was:
House of Representatives:
Primaries:
Liberal: 32.94% (+2.31%)
Labor: 27.26% (–6.35%)
Greens: 12.00% (+1.88%)
JLN: 6.79% (+6.79%)
One Nation: 3.99% (+1.20%)
UAP: 1.84% (–3.01%)
Liberal Democrats: 1.45% (+1.45%)
AJP: 1.36% (+0.88%)
Local: 1.22% (+1.22%)
Independents: 11.50% (–1.84%)
Seats:
Labor: 2 (±0)
Liberal: 2 (±0)
Independent (Andrew Wilkie): 1 (±0)
TPP:
Labor: 54.33% (–1.63%)
Liberal: 45.67% (+1.63%)
Senate:
Votes:
Liberal: 32.02% (+0.56%)
Labor: 27.04% (–3.55%)
Greens: 15.48% (+2.91%)
JLN: 8.64% (–0.28%)
One Nation: 3.88% (+0.43%)
Legalise Cannabis: 3.03% (+1.85%)
Liberal Democrats: 1.91% (+1.23%)
SFF: 1.90% (+0.16%)
UAP: 1.62% (–1.02%)
Local: 1.44% (+1.44%)
AJP: 1.37% (0.09%)
Sustainable Australia: 0.96% (+0.45%)
IMOP: 0.30% (+0.30%)
Federation: 0.17% (+0.17%)
Ungrouped: 0.23% (–1.99%)
Seats:
Liberal: 2 (4; –1)
Labor: 2 (4; ±0)
Greens: 1 (2; ±0)
JLN: 1 (2; +1)
@Nether Portal, you’re right about Longman. There was some 2019-style hype in the media about Labor winning Braddon/Bass as well as Lindsay and others but Labor ended up going backwards.
Labor will be playing the defensive in 2025 especially in Lyons so they may be less inclined to campaign in Braddon.
Labor might have a shot here if it is true that Pearce is trying to have Archer booted from the party. This right winger is making the Liberal party look like a fascist party with his leader every single day.
Archer is actually popular and would easily win as an independent. I really hope Jacqui Lambie seriously considers running here because Tasmania is more of a working-class timber loving state. And if the party keeps shifting to the right they will have no appeal here.
I don’t think Labor would be too fussed about trying to win here or Bass. Tasmania Labor’s resources would be used to defend Lyons. Labor also have got lower hanging fruit in Deakin, Menzies, Sturt and Banks to offset a potential loss in Lyons or Gilmore.
Labor won’t win bass or Brandon and Lyons is as good as gone. Should of happened in 2019
I don’t think Bridget Archer will be booted out. Her margin is very thin and it’s quite rare to do a preselection challenge in a marginal seat unless the sitting member is super unpopular and there’s a ‘saviour’ waiting somewhere. There’s some hope in her defending the seat.
Not sure what happened here in Braddon in 2022. The swing TO the Liberals was pretty big and now the Lib margin is pretty high. There’s no way Labor will target this in 2025.
The liberals are pretty popular in Brandon and Tasmania as a whole due to the shambles of the state party. While I don’t agree with bridget archer on many things she stands up for what she believes a d she holds the seat so why fix it if it ain’t broke
Independent Candidate from 2022 Craig Garland is now the seventh member of Braddon for Tasmania’s House of Assembly. Garland finished fourth in the seat with 49% of his preferences going to JLN, 29% to ALP & 22% to Libs.